Asia.view
Asia in 2008
Dec 20th 2007
From Economist.com
The Olympics put China on the international stage
奥林匹克运动会让中国登上国际舞台IF THIS is to be the Asian century, future historians might pinpoint2008 as the year it truly began. Curiously, the event that willsymbolise this is rooted deep in Western tradition: China’s staging ofthe Olympic games in Beijing next August.
倘若这个世纪真是亚洲世纪，将来的历史学家们或许会把2008作为这个亚洲世纪的真正开端。有趣的是，标志着亚洲世纪的开端的事件——明年八月的北京奥林匹克运动会——却是植根于西方的传统。
As with Berlin in 1936, Tokyo in 1964 and Seoul in 1988, theOlympics will symbolise the emergence as a global force of a countryuntil recently mired in poverty and upheaval. The election in November2007 of a new Australian government led by a Mandarin-speaker (KevinRudd) will be seen as recognition of the new international order.
正如1936年的柏林， 1964年的东京和1988年的汉城，奥林匹克运动会的垂青，标志着一个曾经贫穷曾经动荡的国家的崛起，并成为一个不可小觑的国际势力。而2007年11 月澳大利亚选举Kevin Rudd，一个会讲普通话的总统候选人的胜出，则被认为是对这个国际新秩序的进一步确认。
All the world's its stage
世界都是它的舞台
But the emergence of China is unprecedented in its implications forthe world’s economy, environment and security. The world’s mostpopulous nation will soon be its biggest polluter and its biggesttrader. Its breakneck growth makes it, as one leading Western economiccommentator put it, a giant cuckoo in the global nest. In China theOlympics will mark a justified celebration of its reclaimedinternational stature; the rest of the world will nervously calculatewhat that means.
但 是中国的崛起是史无前例的，因为它将对世界经济，环境和安全的影响至今仍然无法预测。这个人口最多的国家，将很快成为全球污染最多的国家，也是世界经济中 最大的贸易实体。它脆弱而飞速的经济增长率会让世界上其他国家的经济陷入危机。正如一个西方知名评论员打的比方：中国现在是地球这个鸟巢里的一只巨大的杜 鹃鸟——吞噬地球母亲给予的食物，并将其他鸟踢出鸟巢。对于中国来说，奥林匹克是场盛会，欢庆它在世界达到的前所未有的高度；而其他的国家，则恐慌地计算 着它的崛起究竟真正代表着什么。
Nowhere will that process of calculation be more frenzied than inChina’s immediate neighbourhood. Unlike in China, events in many Asiancountries will be determined by elections—a bewildering number of whichare taking place at the turn of the year, in (to name but a few)Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand.
这样的压迫感，没有谁比中国的近邻们更感受深刻了。和中国不同，许多亚洲国家都是采取选举制度，而且不少国家的选举年，正好就在中国的大日子里，比如：吉尔吉斯斯坦，巴基斯坦，南韩，台湾（靠！问候你祖宗，TW什么时候是country了！！），和泰国。
Even a local election this month in the large Indian state ofGujarat—which involves more voters than most national elections—mayhave international implications. A good showing by the Congress party,which leads the governing coalition, may encourage it to call nationalelections.
即使是本月的一场印度Gujarat联邦的地方选举，因为投票人数超过国家性选举，而被认为有国际性的指标意义。而领导联合政府的印度国大党甚至打算鼓励将它变成一次全国性的选举。If they are held, they will be fought partly over the proposed dealon civilian nuclear co-operation with America. This is presented as amatter of meeting India’s yawning energy gap. But in reality, on bothsides, it is about hedging against the risk of a China that turnshostile. To the dismay of the American establishment, many in Indiawould prefer to hedge against over-dependence on American assistance.
如果真的演变成一场全国性的选举，围绕着和美国合作的民用核能提案将面临激烈的争论。表面上看，这仅仅是关于 如何弥补印度日益扩大的能源供需缺口的议题。事实上，对于争论的双方，这还一个是关于是否应该选择跟美国靠得更紧一些，来对冲来自一个日益变得敌意的近邻 中国的风险的课题。
That feeling may intensify if Pakistan continues its slide intochaos. Whether or not next month’s elections produce the scriptedresult—Pervez Musharraf continues as president, while Benazir Bhuttobecomes prime minister, a job she has held twice already—China willhave an important role in legitimising the new regime.
这种压迫感，还将随着巴基斯坦政局的动荡而进一步加强。不论下个月的选举是否如剧本中所言，穆沙拉夫继续是穆沙拉夫总统，只要贝.布托夫人第三度成为总理，中国都会继续在这个地区扮演重要的角色。
Similarly, China’s other neighbours prefer co-operation andplacation to confrontation and hostility. In Japan, no election hasbeen called, but one remains likely in early 2008, as the governmentstruggles with the legislative deadlock resulting from the opposition’scommand of parliament’s upper house. Any government is likely tocontinue the improvement in relations with China that has followed thedeparture, in 2006, of Junichiro Koizumi as prime minister.
与巴基斯坦类似的，中国的其他邻国也 更倾向于通过合作和对话来解决争端，消除敌意。在日本，虽然暂时还没有选举的安排，但是因为内阁和上议院之间对峙造成的紧张关系，2008年初仍然有可能 有一场大选。但是无论哪个政党执政，都将更倾向于修复由于2006年下台的小泉纯一郎造成的中日关系裂痕。
The biggest regional issue in South-East Asia will also demandChina’s help. The bloody suppression of protests in Myanmar inSeptember 2007 reminded members of the Association of South-East AsianNations (ASEAN) that this brutal, superstitious, archaic regime is anobstacle to ASEAN’s being taken seriously, and that China is Myanmar’sbiggest foreign friend.
而东盟面对的难题，也亟需中国的支持。2007年九月发生在缅甸的对游行示威活动的血腥镇压提醒了东盟其他成员，这个残暴而迷信的落后国家缅甸，正成为东盟成为一个有影响力的国际组织过程中的绊脚石。而中国，正是这个国家最大的伙伴。
Its biggest export market, however, remains Thailand, whose electionon December 23rd should mark a return to democracy. But like Myanmar’sjunta and Mr Musharraf, and indeed the Chinese Communist Party, thegenerals running Thailand remain scared of the will of the people,freely expressed. Games are easier.
中国最大的出口市场，泰国，也将在12月23日进行选举。这被认为是向民主的一次回归。但是和缅甸的军政府，穆沙拉夫先生，当然还有中国共产党一样，这个现在在军方控制下的泰国政府，仍然对人民自由表达意愿充满了防备。相比之下，运动场上的竞技可就轻松多了。
